Think tanks should conduct deep studies of global trends to enhance the national capacity for surviving Black Swan events

“Nuclear governance is now facing massive challenges. In the last few years, we have seen that all the arm controls agreements have become dysfunctional. There is rampant nuclear proliferation. For practical purposes, there is hardly any nuclear governance in the world today.

“We are entering into a phase where the world faces massive challenges due to the stress on the nuclear order. These concerns have been exaggerated by this Russia-Ukraine war, where from time to time there is loose talk of use of nuclear weapons. There is also the increasing trend of militarization of outer space. Recently the American intelligence agencies have speculated about the possibility of the Russians deploying a nuclear device in space. This is a serious matter.”

This was stated by Dr. Arvind Gupta, Director, Vivekananda International Foundation, in conservation with Anoop Verma, Editor (Desk), ETGovernment. Dr. Gupta had served as the Deputy National Security Adviser and Secretary, National Security Council, during 2014-17. He was the Director General of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses during 2012-2014. In the interview, he sheds light on the foreign policy initiatives of the Modi government.

Edited excerpts:
In your essay, "Global Situation and Challenges Ahead in 2024," you have warned that “black swan events are becoming increasingly common.” What steps can the new government that comes into being in June take to ensure that India is not challenged by the new black swan events that might hit the globe in near future?
We have to understand deeply through studies, analysis, observations and experience what are the deep trends in the world. Black swan events are not necessarily random events–they often happen due to deep drivers that have hitherto gone unobserved.

A good analogy would be an earthquake, which takes everyone by surprise when it happens, but the geological forces that led to the earthquake were forming, simmering and working deep inside the earth for a long time. Likewise, for the events that we tend to see as black swan, these too are the outcome of trends, which have for some reason gone unobserved.

Today the world is in a state of flux. New developments are taking place all around us, whether it is rebalancing of power equations, climate change, impact of globalization, demographic transformations, migrations, economic upheavals etc. These developments are churning the world and creating a fertile breeding ground for black swan events.

To safeguard our national interests from black swan events, we have to prepare in advance. To prepare in advance, we need a deeper understanding of the world. We need to ensure that we are aware of the deep trends and are prepared for every possible eventuality.

Is there anything specific that the think tanks such as the Vivekananda International Foundation can do to ensure that the country is not hit badly by the sudden eruption of black swan events?
The think tanks must undertake a deep study of global and regional trends. The government should encourage long-term studies by the think tanks. We should have a far larger number of experts, scholars and multidisciplinary researchers looking into global events. Right now our studies are somewhat thin. There are not enough experts. Between the government officials and the strategic community, there is a chasm which has to be bridged. The universities must have courses on national security and strategic affairs. A few universities are having courses on international relations, but this is not enough.

There is need for multidisciplinary research that joins civilizational, cultural, historical, social, economic studies along with international relations, so that we have a complete picture of what is going on. Our policy makers have to be aware of these trends. They have to encourage these studies. The link between the government and think tanks has to be strengthened. Think tanks are unable to retain talent. Scholars, experts and analysts must have credible career options.

In your essay, you have also said that global issues like climate change, biodiversity, development, maritime security, space security, cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, health, food, water, immigration, education, terrorism, human rights, population and demography, organised crime, human trafficking and digital currencies require global cooperation. But other countries have their own agenda, and in many cases, they don’t want India to be a developed country. So how can India find cooperation in the present global geopolitical environment?
This is a challenge that we have to overcome through diplomacy. We might not be able to gain cooperation from all countries, no country can, but we have to find as many partners as we can in our journey towards economic development and national security.

The issues we face are global. Whether you talk of climate change, space security, pandemic, health security, shipping, migrations, drug trafficking–all these and many others are global issues. Without global cooperation, we cannot resolve any of these issues.

A good example of a framework for global cooperation is the idea of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam, which means 'world is one family.' This is the vision of the honorable Prime Minister. This was also the theme of India’s G20 Presidency. Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam is rooted in India’s civilisational ethos in a globalized world, cooperation is the way forward.

International trade, which brings big benefits to our country, and all other countries, is based on global cooperation. No doubt, all nations will have their own agendas, but we have to safeguard our national interests. Today’s India has a lot to offer to the world. We can be a voice for the Global South and a voice for global peace and cooperation. At the same time, India has a lot to gain from the world.

When we work for global cooperation, we gain access to new markets, new technologies, and new ways of doing things. All these resources and knowledge further enrich our society.

What is your view of the foreign policy that India has followed in the last 10 years?
Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam, which means the world is one family, is a major foreign policy initiative that the government, led by the honorable Prime Minister, has taken in the last 10 years. The foreign policy of the Modi government stands on two pillars: first, the protection of national interests, and second, global cooperation to make the world a better place.

Prime Minister Modi has talked about globalization with a human face on several occasions. It is true that globalization, as it is manifesting today, is not fair to all sections of humanity and it has a dark underside to it. There is the problem of cutthroat competition, excesses of the multinationals, rising pollution, environmental damage, and economic and social inequality.

One of the aims of India’s foreign policy in the last 10 years has been to ensure that globalization has a human face. In 2015, Modi ji articulated the idea of SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region). SAGAR, which seeks to bring economic and maritime cooperation between the countries in the Indian Ocean region is a brilliant foreign policy move.

In the last 10 years, there have been more high-level visits from India to the countries in the Indian Ocean region than in the last 30 years. The Modi government has followed the policy of Neighbourhood First. We are reaching out to our neighbors. We are coming to their aid in the times when they face geopolitical or healthcare related problems.

India is mastering the game of geopolitical chess. We are now a member of the Quad (the USA, Japan, Australia and India), SCO and BRICS Plus. We have taken the lead in establishing the International Solar Alliance and Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI). India has entered into strategic partnerships and has done far reaching defence reforms to strengthen our self-reliance in defence.

What learning on foreign policy can we derive from the teachings of Vivekananda?
You have to go back to 1893, when Vivekananda in his speech, in the first parliament of world religions in Chicago introduced the West to Hindu religion, describing it as the “Mother of all Religions", and a religion which taught the world “both tolerance and universal acceptance”. He pointed out that the people who had been facing prosecution and tyranny in their own lands had been finding shelter in India for centuries. He warned against the danger of bigotry, sectarianism and fanaticism. The idea of universal brotherhood is relevant today and is central to the concept of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam.

Whether we like it or not, religion, culture and history have always been the drivers of international relations. The challenge is to hold dialogue between religions, civilizations and nations while avoiding bigotry and sectarianism. Vivekananda said that religions should assimilate the spirit of the others without shedding their individuality. His motto for each religion was “harmony and peace and not dissension” and “assimilation and not destruction”. These teachings have contemporary relevance.

In the emerging nuclear governance architecture, what kind of opportunities and challenges does India face? What are the solutions to these challenges?
Nuclear governance is now facing massive challenges. In the last few years, we have seen that most arm controls agreements have become dysfunctional. There is rampant nuclear proliferation. For practical purposes, there is hardly any nuclear governance in the world today.

We are entering into a phase where the world faces massive challenges due to the growing stress on nuclear order. These threats have been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war, where from time to time there is loose talk of use of nuclear weapons. There is also the increasing trend of nuclearization of space itself. Recently the American intelligence agencies have talked about the possibility of the Russians deploying a nuclear device in space. This is a serious matter.

India has always been in the favor of global nuclear disarmament. The idea of nuclear disarmament has not made much of a headway in the world but we have to keep striving in this direction. The world cannot afford to give up.

The situation in J&K seems to have improved after the repeal of Article 370. What further action can be taken to deepen the economic and social bond between the people of J&K and the rest of the country?
The repeal of Article 370 is a positive development. It has paved the way for a new phase of political and economic development of J&K. The overall situation has improved. This is a historic opportunity for us to bring socio-economic development in J&K and enable the people of the region to integrate with the economic and cultural mainstream of India.

The repeal of Article 370 is just the first step, and there are other political and social initiatives that have to be taken to improve the situation in J&K. The priority right now is to restore the full-fledged statehood of J&K and hold elections for electing a state government. Once J&K becomes a state with an elected state government, then the normal development process would follow. The development of J&K is a long-term project, one that will take many years.